In a presidential race defined by its unpredictability, Tuesday’s election results have, for now, traded surprise for status quo — and that is good news for Joe Biden.
With 352 delegates at stake across six states — Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, Idaho, North Dakota and Washington — this sequel to Super Tuesday is all about who has the edge in this effectively two-man race.
It was just one week ago that Biden seized the front-runner mantle from Bernie Sanders, after a commanding win in South Carolina and a victorious romp through the majority of Super Tuesday states.
The question heading into today’s voting was whether he could solidify his standing as the top contender, or if Sanders could capitalize on the chance to wrest back some momentum.
Biden added to his win column early in the night, with victories in Mississippi and Missouri, according to Associated Press projections, followed with a victory in Michigan, the top delegate prize of the night. The Michigan results dealt a blow to Sanders, who was hoping for a repeat of his upset win over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
And before you ask: Yes, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard is still in the mix. But aside from scooping up a pair of delegates in American Samoa, she has failed to establish herself as a serious contender to capture the nomination.
Here are the big takeaways so far from the most recent round of balloting:
Biden’s Southern comfort
The former vice president owes his candidacy to African American voters in the South, banking impressive margins among that group first in South Carolina, and then in Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama and Tennessee on Super Tuesday. On Tuesday, his dominance continued in Mississippi, where nearly two-thirds of Democratic primary voters were black, according to exit polls; more than 80% of those African American voters supported Biden.
Biden was considered such a lock to win the Magnolia State that the Sanders campaign canceled a planned speech there last week, opting instead to spend more time in Michigan. There, the Vermont senator touted the endorsement of the Rev. Jesse Jackson, the civil rights leader and former presidential candidate, in hopes of making inroads with African American voters.
For Sanders, the same ‘old’ problem
Even before voting ended in Missouri, early exit polls from the state signaled a big problem for Sanders: About three-quarters of the voters were 45 or older. Although Sanders has emerged as the runaway favorite among young voters, he has struggled mightily to win over the Democratic Party’s older, and most reliable, constituents.
Sanders has tried to improve his standing with older voters, particularly by positioning himself as the champion of Social Security. But last week, Biden won the backing of two-thirds of voters 45 to 64 and got nearly 80% of those 65 and older. Together, the two groups accounted for 66% of the voters on Super Tuesday.
Sure enough, when the polls in Missouri closed at 8 p.m. Eastern time, Biden was swiftly called the winner of the Show-Me State.
Whiplash from the white working-class
When Sanders mounted a serious challenge to Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination four years ago, he was boosted by support from white working-class voters. That demographic, which sided decisively with President Trump in 2016, has been central to Sanders’ pitch this time around that he is best positioned to win the White House.
But Tuesday’s results signaled that Sanders may not have such a firm grip on those voters. In Missouri, he narrowly won white voters without a college degree in 2016, but this time, Biden squeaked out an advantage with that group, according to preliminary exit polls.
The same goes in Michigan, where Sanders notched a strong performance in 2016 among working-class whites, bolstered by his denunciation of free trade deals that hammered the state’s industrial economy. But on Tuesday, exit polls found Biden beating Sanders among white voters without a college degree by five points. The surveys also found Biden with a 12-point lead among voters in union households.
Campaign, meet coronavirus
It’s fair to say Tuesday’s contests have been a bit overshadowed by the growing alarm over the spread of the novel coronavirus in the United States and across the globe.
The specter of the virus has hovered around the campaign for days, but it directly affected the stump on Tuesday, after Sanders and Biden both canceled evening rallies in Cleveland, citing guidance from public health officials there.
Meanwhile, in Washington state, which has been among the hardest-hit by coronavirus, the all mail-in ballot election averted the need for large gatherings at polling places. Officials there suggested another level of caution, urging voters to use damp sponges or cloths to seal the ballot return envelopes. The Washington secretary of state tweeted a catchy slogan: “Whether healthy or sick, please don’t lick!”
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